You knew I wouldn't be able to resist...

I'm a movie nerd. And I'm loving my movie nerdery site here, but with assholes jumping into the presidential race like burning midgets into a kiddie pool, I'm feeling an intense need to indulge in my first nerdist impulse: political jag-offery. As such, I'm posting the first of what will likely be a monthly series of candiate handicapping. I will rank the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates (those who have official announced candidicacies or have formed 'exploratory committees') according to the likelihood that they'll get the nomination of their respective parties. The rankings will likely shift wildly as events unfold. Bear in mind, for all the fun of political horseracing, the American political system is a sham. Both parties are parties of capital and empire. Their only real disagreements are how to most effectively to keep the herd in line.

Democrats:

1. Barack Obama: He's got the momentum, he's got the Oprah endorsement, he's got a pipeline to money and a facebook army ready to carry out his will. Plus, the media has a McCain-sized crush on him, which helps a lot.

2. John Edwards: Escaped the '04 Kerry fiasco unscathed, has high favorable ratings and a coherent, resonant message, strong endorsement by unions could be a key to turning out voters in early primaries, has staked a strong claim on the Iowa caucus.

3. Hillary Clinton: I really, really don't think she's going to get nominated: the media hates her, and that Iraq vote (and subsequent hawkishness) is going to kill her among primary voters, but she's going to have, like, a quadrillion dollars in her war chest and unparralleled name recogniction. She can't be dismissed, much as I'd like to.

4. Wes Clark: The national security candidate. If he's spent the last few years learning how to not sound like an idiot in public, he'll get some serious looks. Money will be an issue.

5. Bill Richardson: Hands down, the best resume of any Democrat, but he's got a giant chin-waddle, no name rec, and the charisma of a damp sponge. Still, if he can get some money, he'll make a serious push for Latinos and people looking for gravitas over style.

6. Chris Dodd: Boring old Senator with weirdly-colored eyebrows.

7. Joe Biden: Already a long shot before he said Barack Obama was the first "clean" black man to be a political figure.

8. Tom Vilsack: Being governor of Iowa gives you a chance to win the Iowa caucus, but that's about it. Also, John Edwards will probably end up winning Iowa anyway.

9. Dennis Kucinich: My favorite candidate, hands down, but not going to get it, as much as I love the scrappy representative that Stephen Colbert once called a "socialist garden gnome."

10. Mike Gravel: You shot who in the what now?

Republicans:

1. Newt Gingrich: This is more of a hunch than anything concrete. The frontrunners are so unpalpable to most base Republican voters (read: douchemongers) that I think Gingrich will bust onto the scene as a "true" conservative and steal the show.

2. Mike Huckabee: A similar strategy as Gingrich, but saddled with a lot less name recogniction and money, but still a comer.

3. Mitt Romney: Has the money and media attention. If he can convince the base that he really, really, really hates gays and loves fetuses, he'll walk to the nomination...provided the evangelicals don't flip out at his Mormon-ness.

4. John McCain: Most people have him as the front-runner, but I'm simply not buying it. The base thinks he's some kind of closet liberal (which he isn't), and his position on Iraq is the least popular one imaginable.

5. Sam Brownback: THE true-blue social conservative, hampered by low name rec and a pro-amnesty position on illegal immigration.

6-9. A bunch of assholes I've never heard of: Jim Gilmore (former Viriginia governor), Tom Tancredo (one-issue Mexican hater), Ron Paul (Texas libertarian), Duncan Hunter (war mongering House shitheel)

10. Rudy Guiliani: The fact that he's leading all polls of Republican candidates proves the pointlessness of polling this far away from the election. Sure, he singlehandely knocked United Flight 93 out of the air with his tumor-riddled cock, but he's pro-choice. I don't care if he calls a press conference and pulls Osama's head out of a bowling bag, he's pro-choice. He's pro-choice. Pro-choice. NOT. GOING. TO. HAPPEN.